In 2035, Europe will drive alone in electric cars

VSNot a detail, while the low-cost car has been praised for the past twenty years as the model of reasonable mobility, getting rid of the useless swelling of the superfluous, this model has lived. As long as all European member states ratify the radical vote of the Parliament that condemns from 2035 the sale of any new model equipped with a thermal engine, all Europeans who purchase a new car on this date will only be condemned for one option: the electric car.

Here we have already discussed at length the advantages and disadvantages of each of the technical formulas. But one has never been condemned by the other and a European Parliament dictation was needed to initially impose the electric car. A door is left open for other solutions with more distant emergencies such as hydrogen, but we have understood that it is the heat engine that we have had to deny.

The battle of combustion engines continues in the European Parliament

According to the approved text, 100% of new vehicles must be effectively “zero-emission”, imposing on users and manufacturers a revolution that many do not want. In any case, it does not agree with this size schedule that jeopardizes the European technological superiority in the sector and shuffles the cards in favor of its competitors, much less well placed until then. By the way, it should be noted that the so-called “car lobby” has become a balloon, helping the dieselgate, and that in fact it is a green lobby that dominates the current debates.

The Dacia model in play

But it is not so sure that all Member States will validate this plan without stepping in, in particular Romania, a country in rural Dacia (Spring electric is made in China). And this despite the fact that Germany, for its part, seems to have negotiated a spectacular turn in recent days, even questioning the exception to the 70% freeway on the Rhine motorways. It is a good way to reduce the handicap of electric cars in terms of thermal as the plan would follow with a harmonized speed reduction to 120 km / h, or even 110. Because we can no longer drive fast and for a long time of time without stopping, what is the use of approaching the electric motor?

The refractory will still be able to cling to the used car as everything that circulates before 2035 will be able to continue circulating later with, we bet, restrictions of access to the already existing urban nuclei with zones of low emissions (ZFE). . However, Europe will be the first major market to overtake China and the United States, but Norway has already passed the call with a deadline of 2025 and Israel, sensitive to oil supply, in 2030. on the other hand, South America, Africa, Central Europe outside the EU or the rest of Asia and Oceania do not seem to be in a hurry to enter the battery field.

Who will pay for the electric car at 100 euros a month?

There is a good reason for this, the electric car is a car for the rich and requires a charging infrastructure as heavy as it is expensive. And this even though the Macron plan for a car at 100 euros a month has been announced. Because scarcity is approaching and, despite the opening of battery production units, raw materials will be depleted. Elon Musk would thus plan to buy a lithium mine to supply his two million Tesla produced annually. Carlos Tavares has already sounded the alarm for 2024, seeing as the growth of sales of electric cars increases faster than that of available batteries.

How long did electricity help?

Under the effect of European standards, public subsidies and the proliferation of hybrid and electric vehicles, gasoline vehicles are in decline, victims of component shortages. But it should be noted that the buyer does not give up and is patient with his delivery or possibly chooses light hybrids. They are mostly a matter of opportunism and accounted for a quarter of European sales in the first quarter of 2022. It would be a mistake to equate them to electric cars as their autonomy with this energy alone is ridiculous.

Plug-in hybrids accounted for 8.9% of the market, and pure electric 10% (+ 53.4% ​​in one year). A spectacular leap but starting from scratch, we have to put things in perspective. Rather high-end at the moment, they are more and more numerous on Dutch, Swedish or German roads especially, where the standard of living is higher than in France. But they are far from zero emissions, their emissions are even comparable or worse than those of a gas car when their owner does not recharge them. And you can really get tired of it, because you have to do it almost every day.

One big question remains: “What will drive a home to switch to two electric vehicles?” Says Eric Kirstetter of Roland Berger. on vacation. Wise caution, the last weekends of Ascension and Pentecost having gathered the enthusiasm of some recent converts, some of whom are returning to the thermal car.

Electricity, a luxury product?

To combat the price differential between thermal and electrical, Europe has found the solution: it has taxed the first and subsidized the second. However, the parity between the two techniques will not be achieved for a few years thanks to the volume effects, the Stellantis group (Peugeot, Fiat, etc.) estimated it at the beginning of the year between 2025 and 2030. this does not take into account. take into account the prices of many materials that have since exploded.

“Electricity will continue to be structurally quite expensive for a while. We are moving towards a market that is increasingly targeted at people with more means,” warns Eric Kirstetter. unknown of the batteries (a third of the value of the vehicle) while a tank of gasoline or diesel raises no doubt.The coast of Argus has a bright future ahead.

Geolocated pollution

France, Germany, Spain, Italy … In each of these countries, the car industry represents an important part of the industrial jobs currently under threat. Manufacturing electric vehicles that require less labor than thermal vehicles, the energy transition could destroy many jobs, despite the establishment of battery factories. In France, for example, the switch to electricity could lead to the loss of 65,000 jobs out of the 200,000 in the sector, according to the car platform (PFA).

The paradox of electricity is that it looks very virtuous when used in the city, but it is much less so for countries where raw materials are extracted. This does not prevent the UN climate experts (IPCC) from arguing that “low-carbon electric vehicles offer the main potential to decarbonise land transport, in life cycle analysis”, ie including the manufacture of batteries. It is the production of electricity itself, more advantageous in France with nuclear than in Germany or Poland, subject to coal.

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