Can we really do without gasoline and diesel engines in less than 15 years?

Will we really be able to do without gasoline and diesel engines in less than 15 years? The European Parliament is examining the issue today. But first, what exactly are we talking about when we talk about the end of these combustion engine vehicles? We are talking about gasoline or diesel cars and small commercial vehicles. They would banned from sale in 2035. New vehicles, you can always buy a used diesel. But in concession, it will be electric and perhaps hybrid. But it is not certain … It is not the desire of the European Commission, although some countries, including France, are obliged to preserve them …

He trucks they seem, for the time being, outside the scope of this reform. Electric trucks are currently just a green dream. Technologically, it’s still too complicated. Imagine the size of the battery for a 38 ton … For the trucks, we will probably go to hydrogen and, a priori, there will be no ban on two wheels, at least for now …

Are the builders ready?

It is a real revolution that is announced and 2035 is tomorrow. It is in a forced march that the manufacturers are stepping in. Europe’s increasingly drastic goals have forced brands to do just that develop at high speed its range of 100% electric models to avoid record fines. “However, investment levels remain highly variable from actor to actor,” said McKinsey experts. More and more manufacturers are announcing the discontinuation of gasoline / diesel engine models in favor of all-electric ones. Volkswagen and Volvo presented the most ambitious plans with 60% of electric cars in Europe and 100% in the world by 2030, respectively.

Sales are accelerating. In France, during the first quarter of this year, we are almost 12% of 100% electric vehicles and 8% of rechargeable hybrid vehicles … In other words, currently 1 in 5 new cars is equipped with a plug. We are roughly the European average, but it really is an average, with large disparities by country. In Sweden we are already more than 50% new electric cars, and in Norway, we are flirting with 90% … Keep in mind that it is 100% electric that is advancing, the hybrid is losing ground …

Who resists this reform?

Naturally, the battle spreads within the European institutions. As for road transport, trucks, negotiations promise to be very tense but the discussion is scheduled for next year. So the calendar will accelerate very quickly.

For the reform we are talking about today, June 8, 2022, the vote is expected this afternoon after yesterday’s debates. Then there will be the essential seal of the Ministers of the Environment from the 27th at the end of the month but … it is tight. Another option is born, supported by the European right and far right: not 100% electric or hydrogen cars manufactured from 2035 but 90%, we would leave a 10% margin for gasoline or diesel cars. This is an option suggested by car manufacturers, particularly the Germans Porsche and BMW who would like to keep high-end thermal cars.

It is a choice that must be made. Opponents of this green transition argue that by stopping production of gasoline or diesel cars, we condemns 500,000 jobs in Europe, though us creates 225,000 in the electric battery sector, does not compensate for the loss of jobs. That is why a social fund is planned to help automotive subcontractors in particular to transform.

A solution among many others

The end of gasoline and diesel engines is a solution to the fight against global warming but it may not be the only solution, that’s for sure … If we look at the figures, Europe accounts for less than 10% of emissions CO2 of the world. .. And the car accounts for 13% of our emissions. Tan the car in Europe is only 1.25% of the CO2 emitted worldwide… It is clear that the electric car is better than nothing, but it will not work miracles. Mainly because the production of electricity is not carbon neutral, most power plants run on gas or coal …

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