Presidential polls: the latest poll on the Macron duel

PRESIDENTIAL SURVEY. The latest polls in the second round of the presidential election still place Emmanuel Macron as the big favorite against Marine Le Pen. Check out the latest issues and our compilation of roundtable polls.

[Mis à jour le 22 avril 2022, à 23h59] The latest polls released in the second round of the presidential election last Friday give Emmanuel Macron the winner this Sunday, April 24, 2022 against Marine Le Pen with 55 to 57% of the vote compared to 43 to 45% for the candidate of the national rally. The polls that measure the voting intentions of this Macron-Le Pen duel have given, with some consistency, the first favorite for a second term and the second loser. And this from the beginning of the campaign. But never has the far right seemed so close to power, with a backdrop of declining turnout.

Because apart from the ballot box, the French are facing a historic option: to renew the outgoing president, something that has never been done, apart from coexistence, since the adoption of direct universal suffrage in 1962, or to choose a woman, who would be a first, and thus push the far right into the Elysee for an explosion that would resonate far beyond French borders, comparable to British Brexit and the election of Donald Trump in the United States on 2016.

The flood of polls published since the beginning of the year or even much earlier is now cut short. The campaign officially ended on Friday at midnight. Public meetings, the distribution of leaflets and the digital propaganda of candidates are prohibited. No interviews or surveys or estimates of results may be posted before Sunday’s results at 8 p.m.

Polls do not predict the results of the presidential election. It is simply a photograph of the opinion taken at a precise moment. Several factors are difficult to measure: the abstention rate, voter indecision until the last minute, and the margin of error present in all polls. Therefore, the vote is far from over.

The end of the campaign and the debate between the two rounds seem to benefit Emmanuel Macron rather. The outgoing president is credited with 56.5% of the voting intentions expressed compared to 43.5% of Marine Le Pen. According to the Ipsos poll for Le Monde published on Friday evening, voters of the RN candidate are 92% confident of his election, compared to 94% of the head of state. Since the evening of the first round, the leadership of the outgoing president has been expanded from ten to thirteen points with the far-right candidate.

The “latest poll” shown here may come from different polling stations, and each has a different methodology. These are the ones that appear alternately on this page, with links to learn more about each survey.

What do polls say about this revenge between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, five years after an identical second round in 2017? Even before the first round of this 2022 presidential election was held, polls had been published in the event of a second round of the presidential election clash between the RN candidate and the outgoing president. All polls conducted before the first round gave Emmanuel Macron the winner. These pre-round polls have been complemented by new studies conducted since Sunday, April 10th.

2nd round discussion poll

The Elabe Institute conducted a poll for BFMTV, L’Express and SFR at the end of the debate between the two rounds, on a representative panel of 650 people who followed the exchanges. 59% of respondents rated Emmanuel Macron as “more convincing” (39% for Marine Le Pen). Another lesson from this poll: 53% of viewers surveyed thought that Emmanuel Macron was “the most qualified to be President of the Republic” (28% for Marine Le Pen); the outgoing president is considered more “capable of uniting the French people” (36% vs. 31%), more dynamic (49% vs. 31%); it is also perceived as the “best project” (44% vs. 31%), but also as the “most arrogant” (50% vs. 16%).

Macron or Le Pen vote certainty poll

This is an important piece of information to identify the likelihood that the dynamics of the polls will be reversed or accelerated: have voting intentions already crystallized and to what extent? According to the very robust Ipsos Sopra Steria / Cevipof study for Le Monde, 69% of French people said they were sure they would go to the polls on April 18, 2022 (57% between the ages of 18-24, 56% between the ages of 25-34). elderly people, but 78% between 60-69 and 82% between 70 and over). Another fact: 93% of voters who plan to vote for Emmanuel Macron say they are confident of their run-off election, 89% of voters plan to vote for Marine Le Pen as well. But 43% of people who plan to abstain or vote blank or null say they can change their minds.

What do vote transfer polls say?

The postponement of the votes of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s 7.7 million voters is one of the key issues in the second round of the presidential election. Some polls specify the voting intentions of those voters who voted for the Insoumis in the first round and give an idea of ​​the trends and possible exchanges of votes for the second round.

According to the BVA poll by Orange and RTL published on April 22, 2022, 27% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters are inclined to vote for the outgoing president, a figure that is declining. Most say they “currently want to vote blank (24%; +2) or abstain (31%; +1).” “Only 18% would vote for Marine Le Pen. It is a very small minority but still double that in 2017 (8%),” the institute said.

According to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for Le Monde published on April 20, 36% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters wanted to vote for Emmanuel Macron, 19% for Marine Le Pen and 45% for abstention.

According to the Ifop poll conducted by TFI-LCI on April 10, the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon was very divided: 33% wanted to vote for Emmanuel Macron on that date compared to 23% for Marine Le Pen, while the 44% leaned toward a target. vote, null or abstention.

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