Emmanuel Macron is announced as the winner of the second round of the presidential election this Sunday, April 24, according to the first results published at 8 p.m. The outgoing president got 58% of the vote compared to 42% after a day marked by leaks to numerous foreign media such as RTBF.
Presidential results close to you
Emmanuel Macron is therefore re-elected head of the Presidency of the Republic with a slightly higher difference than the polls had announced since the start of the campaign. The outgoing president wins with more than 58% of the vote compared to 42% of Marine Le Pen (58.8% compared to 41.2% according to the Ipsos-Storia institute for France 2), a candidate who still has a historic score for the far right. Follow our live stream below with all the numbers, reactions and what’s to come next.
The French-language Belgian radio and television station, RTBF, had broadcast the results on its airwaves as estimates of the results finally published in the evening, from 8 pm in France. These results, which Linternaute.com was unable to broadcast before 8pm, were presented as estimates from “two polling stations” with unspecified identities. Few sources, then, that should have encouraged caution … If the identity of the winner of this 2nd round was good, the difference announced around 55 to 58% is actually close to the first estimates made at 8pm by the French media and confident. a score of 58.2% for Emmanuel Macron according to Ipsos-Sopra Steria for France 2 and for the Institut Elabe for BFM TV.
Belgian radio and television (RTBF) had already published in the afternoon the results presented as “final” for various overseas departments and territories. Guyana, Saint-Pierre-en-Miquelon, Guadeloupe, French Polynesia are part of it. Like all French media, Linternaute.com cannot give you results before 8 p.m. As a reminder, Linternaute.com will make you live the whole election night with all the official results published directly by our envoys to the Ministry of the Interior.
This little game, in which RTBF has become an expert, has been a reality for about five years now. Since 2007, in particular, some French-language media abroad, starting with public radio and television, have been pleased to outperform their French counterparts by publishing figures on the election results on their websites. supreme before 20 h legal closing time of the last vote. stations in France. All this in the middle of a reserve period for the French media, to which it is forbidden to reveal the slightest figure or the slightest tendency until the complete end of the scrutiny.
The RTBF assumes this and revealed on its website this Sunday, April 24 in the morning that it would broadcast several waves of results. Before 19.00 this Sunday, he intended to broadcast the first polls but warns: “The main electoral institutes in France, however, have reached an agreement this year with the electoral commission to stop conducting these polls. The professionalism of the polls “This is a questionable year.” The RTBF also recalls that these polls are just a “photograph at a time t” of the vote and that the differences can then be significant with the final score. On the other hand, the Belgian media also stated that they wanted to broadcast the first estimates of results “around 19:30.” For the RTBF, these estimates “correspond to those given at 20:00 by the French media . ” Therefore, impatient voters could have the first results before 8 p.m.
Are these results reliable before 20:00?
But is RTBF a reliable source for the results of the 2022 presidential election in France? Fifteen days ago, for the first time, the French-speaking Belgian Radio and Television had published estimates of the result at the end of the afternoon, violating the reservation period imposed on the French media so as not to skew the result of the scrutiny. On its website where it followed the elections live, as well as on social media, the RTBF announced before 19.00 “Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen neck and neck, with 24% of the vote.” He refined his estimate a few minutes later, crediting the outgoing president with 24.7% and the RN candidate with 23.5%.
The RTBF then mentioned “an exit survey”, without specifying the institute that provided this estimate of the results. A process already in use in 2017 when, from the beginning of the afternoon, he had appointed Emmanuel Macron and Marine le Pen as two presidential finalists. But his estimate of the first round of the 2022 presidential election is problematic in many ways. First of all, if he gave the duet that appears this Sunday in the second round of voting well in advance, his quantified estimate turned out to be quite inaccurate. Emmanuel Macron finally distanced Marine Le Pen during the first round of elections with almost 28% of the vote against just over 23% of his rival. A result far from the announced “elbow to elbow”.
The response of the electoral commission
Certainly a little scalded, the Commission of Inquiry, therefore, responded without delay. On the day of the first round of presidential elections, he announced that he had contacted the Harris Interactive Institute “to make sure that the commitment not to vote at the ballot box had been respected.” Although the survey was one of the French institutes that had promised not to do this type of survey, the questionnaires sent to voters during the day circulated on social media. At this stage Harris has not communicated on this subject.
The contempt of the RTBF and the Belgians, the reaction of the French authorities
The warnings or even threats from the authorities overseeing the elections in France will do nothing. The RTBF was not the only one to mock the CNCCEP. Libre Belgique will publish the same estimates as its colleagues on April 10. The newspaper Le Soir, meanwhile, will announce the morning of the first round, in an article published on its website and entitled “#RadioLondon: why the Belgian media can broadcast the results of the presidential election before 8 pm” , its intention to publish the first trends from 6 pm, or in any case when the information would be “revised, reliable and serious” …
Another shortcoming of RTBF: the lack of a source. If French-speaking Belgian radio and television stubbornly ensured the reliability of its figures, it will never specify where or how they were obtained. And for good reason: all French polling stations had agreed with the Voting Committee not to conduct and report “exit polls” on polling day. If the pollsters have kept their word (which is yet to be proven), then the estimates released on April 10 are “higher” estimates, which no credible survey seems to be able to justify. Or, to put it more trivially, “misleading information that is misrepresented as polls,” as warned by the National Commission for the Control of the Presidential Election Campaign (CNCCEP) in a press release a few days ago before, anticipating this type of publication.
The Commission of Inquiry had also recalled, five days before the vote, that “all figures that would be released before 8pm would be false.” In early April, in another press release, he stated that he had obtained “from the 8 major polling stations (BVA, Elabe, Harris Interactive, Ifop, Ipsos, Kantar, Odoxa, OpinionWay) the guarantee that none of them will last. On April 10, the “exit from the polls” polls. […] no credit should be given to them, ”he added. In fact, history will confirm the erroneous nature of RTBF estimates.