Action reaction. Emmanuel Macron has therefore been re-elected President of the Republic this Sunday evening and will remain in the Elysee for five more years. Jean Castex, prepares to pack from Matignon. The Prime Minister announced before the election that if he won the candidate En Marche, he would resign from his government. A “Republican use,” in his words, that could give way to a successor.
So goodbye – no doubt – singing accent, territories and quarterly curfew announcements. And if the name of the next head of government is not yet known, the favorites will emerge. So who will sign for FC Matignon? 20 minutes takes stock of the most likely options for this political transfer window.
Elisabeth Borne, the technician
Strengths: The powers of the current Minister of Labor, to begin with: “Elisabeth Borne is an excellent technician with a great command of the subjects,” says Pascal Delwit, a professor of political science at the Free University of Brussels. His political orientation, clearly assumed on the right, may also be appropriate a few weeks before the legislative elections: “During the presidential election, three blocs stood out in the first round: 35% of the votes on the right, 32% on the far right, and 30% for the entire left. Therefore, it is logical, in the face of the legislative elections, to leave a prime minister marked on the right “, admits the political scientist.
Finally, Elisabeth Borne is a woman. and policy specialist. Only one woman has so far been prime minister in France. Edith Cresson, thirty-one years ago.
Where it can go wrong: The minister has a flaw in her qualities: “It’s too technical and not very political,” says Bruno Cautrès. Same analysis with André Fazi, professor of political science at the University of Corsica: “Elisabeth Borne lacks personal political space to take a very complicated position, the battle for the legislative elections is far from won, and this requires “experience.”
Julien Denormandie, the rising star
Strengths: Attention, the current Minister of Agriculture is a big favorite. According to our three specialists, he marks many boxes: with experience in politics, one of the first supporters of Emmanuel Macron from the outset, recognized for his loyalty and for his work in the Ministry of Agriculture: “He is highly valued by farmers “, admits Bruno Cautrès -, of young profile (41 years).
In addition, he is little known to the general public, which seems to please Emmanuel Macron in view of his previous election as the second man in power, Edouard Philippe and Jean Castex. “If Emmanuel Macron wants to pursue a Jupiterian policy, this may be a preferred argument,” says Pascal Delwit.
Where it can go wrong: A rising figure, of course, but not yet a taulier: Julien Denormandie could suffer his youth in the face of the challenge of legislative elections. André Fazi: “It may not be political enough for this specific struggle, not to mention that Emmanuel Macron should end the idea of a puppet as prime minister. He can no longer run for re-election in 2027, and if he wants to leave a legacy in politics and for his party to survive, he has every interest in finding a real successor and not a Jean Castex bis ”.
Richard Ferrand, the old veteran
Strengths: Former Socialist Party activist Richard Ferrand may be an option to seduce left-wing voters during the legislative elections. His loyalty to Emmanuel Macron, who has held various positions on his team since 2016, is well established. Can Richard Ferrand make a difference?
Where it can go wrong: Richard Ferrand could have worked … five years ago, but he seems to have lost his car, according to André Fazi: “In 2022, who considers Richard Ferrand to be on the left? It has the Macron tag and will not convince any voter. In addition, it does not in any case embody a political renewal or a second wind, essential for the beginning of the five-year period. »
Gerald Darmanin, right winger
Its strengths: Young (39), having spent most of his political career under Macron for five years (Minister of Action and Public Accounts between 2016 and 2020, after the Interior for almost two years), Gerald Darmanin has a number of qualities for the position. : “It is clearly on the right, which can tip the scales for the legislative elections. He is a man on the ground, who has been able to manage the situation intelligently in Corsica above all, who are often sent to the debates “, says André Fazi, who sees him as the favorite thanks to this mixture of experience and youth. .
Where it can go wrong: The minister remains divisive, and perhaps “too much” on the right for the legislative elections. If the charges of rape against him have led to dismissals, they remain in people’s minds and a date with Matignon could be very misperceived, our experts believe.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, left winger surprised
Its strengths: In the eyes of Emmanuel Macron, probably little. A post of prime minister for the leader of La France Insoumise would only come in the event of a clear success of LFI and the left in general in the legislative elections, forcing the president to leave Matignon to a member of this coalition. A hypothesis in which Jean-Luc Mélenchon believes, who stated that he wanted to make the legislative elections a “third round of the presidential election” to allow him access to the post of Prime Minister.
Where it could go wrong: The “science fiction” side of this theory. Pascal Delwit takes us back to Earth: “LFI is a long way from winning. The party won 22% in the first round of the presidential election, far from enough to crush the legislative elections, which were not very successful. They have no mayor, no regional president and very few known deputies. And even if they win, Mélenchon is wrong: it is not the legislative elections that elect a prime minister. ” Close the ban.