Has Emmanuel Macron already won?

Can’t be present in the second round?

On April 17, 2002, three days before the first round, a journalist asked Lionel Jospin the following question: “Imagine you’re not in the second round, who would you vote for? Response of the mocking socialist candidate: “I have a normal imagination, but still tempered by reason. That seems pretty unlikely to me. So let’s move on to the next question! “. The rest, we know. Can Emmanuel Macron also fall victim to an “April 21” and lose his boat in the second round?

The answer to the question is likely to be found in the survey files. Ten days before the 2002 presidential election, the difference between the first and third candidates was 7 points on average (Jacques Chirac 20%, Lionel Jospin 18% and Jean-Marie Le Pen 13%). Which was enough to end the PS candidate’s career. Twenty years later, the situation is no longer the same as the difference between the outgoing president and the third is 13 points (Emmanuel Macron 28%, Marine Le Pen 21.5% and Jean-Luc Mélenchon 15%). In short, a campaign error by the host of the Elysee where the dynamism of another candidate, in particular the deputy Insoumis, should not jeopardize the qualification of the presidential candidate for re-election.

Can your electorate miss D-Day?

It is an obsession of the macronista template: considering the elections already folded, the voters of the presidential majority could be tempted to take advantage of the weekend and not go to the polls. To further mobilize the base, the president’s campaign team explains that any triumphalism must be monitored and that the vote is not won. However, some data may give rise to optimism. In accordance with rolling As of March 31, 82% of Emmanuel Macron voters are confident of their choice. That’s a little more than Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour (80%). But above all, the certainty is much greater among macronists than among the voters of Valérie Pécresse (68%), Yannick Jadot (58%) or even Anne Hidalgo (48%).

Emmanuel Macron would get his best scores among retirees and affluent categories, that is, the least abstained voters.

Another point should give rise to optimism. Still according to the same study, Emmanuel Macron achieves his best scores among the affluent (36%) and retired (32%) categories, that is, the segments of the population that are statistically less abstentionist.

Is he still the candidate “at the same time”?

Accused by the left of being ultraliberal and of breaking the social model. Hated by the law for its management of public accounts, as well as its history of immigration and security, Emmanuel Macron has struggled for 5 years to manage the “at the same timeSome measures taken since 2017 may appeal to the Social Democratic electorate: splitting the CP and CE1 classes in the priority education networks (REP), staying zero-paying on glasses or dental prostheses, lowering taxation to the most modest households, to such an extent that the Chief Minister for Public Accounts, Olivier Dussopt, Journal for decision making what “the left of government is in the majority “.

However, the government has, since 2017, committed to the right, a political family present in force in the executive where it holds key portfolios such as Economy, Interior, National Education or even Matignon. Reform of the labor code, dissolution of a separatist association, reduction of corporate taxation, abolition of the ISF … Emmanuel Macron carried out reforms that some right-wing governments promised before abandoning them.

Emmanuel Macron would keep 77% of his 2017 base plus 25% of François Fillon voters and 21% of Benoît Hamon voters

As a result of the races, in the final stretch of the campaign, the presidential candidate has 21% of the voters of Benoît Hamon and 25% of those of François Fillon. Although it retains 77% of its 2017 electorate.

What about the second round?

From a purely statistical point of view, the presence of Emmanuel Macron in the second round seems to have been acquired. But for what result? Once again, the rolling Ifop are rich in information. Ten days before the first round, the “Avec vous” candidate is largely the winner over Valérie Pécresse (64%) or Éric Zemmour (66%).

But in the second, his most likely opponents are Marine Le Pen, a solid runner-up, or Jean-Luc Mélenchon, accustomed to the end of the cannonball campaigns, who week after week seem to embody the useful vote of the left. Against the Insoumis, Emmanuel Macron has a wide margin (59%). However, in the face of RN, the situation is problematic.

According to Ifop, its score would be 53.5%. In short, within the margin of error. It seems that in 2022, the blocking voting strategy will no longer work. Among the main opponents of Emmanuel Macron, only environmentalists seem to bend to this Republican tradition to 52%. In contrast, it would gather only 41% of LR voters and 30% of the disobedient; melenchonists and pécressists preferring to play the abstention card. All indications are that a possible victory against RN would be marked by a record abstention and a lower score than in 2017.

Lucas Jakubowicz

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