“A possible scenario: that of a short-term decline before an improvement at the end of the semester”, Chat

Rémi Le Bailly: Hello everybody. Glad to have you back for this weekly talk. Currently, the Cac 40 rises 1% to 6,620 points, or 160 points and only 2.4% of the price published on the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

It looks like the market has entered a new phase since last week. After experiencing, until mid-March, very volatile sessions marked by a large gap between highs and lows, we enter a period of stabilization with a sharp reduction in volatility in the session, a net decline in volumes and an index that is stabilizing in the area of ​​6,500-6,600 points.

LAURENT: Hi Rémi, in this week’s weekly, you see Cac 40 at more than 6,600 at 60% and you recommend lightening up “as soon as possible”: can you tell us what “as soon as possible” means? level or another) ”? Also, what level of liquidity and coverage in BX4 do you recommend for a PEA? Thanks.

Yes, this is indeed our vision in a period of a few months, at the end of June, with two areas where the probability seems stronger: 45% between 6,600 and 7,000 points and 25% between 6,200 and 6,600 points. But in the short term, as we indicated in our “investment ideas,” we are more cautious, believing that the market does not integrate the inevitable downward revision of the corporate earnings outlook.

It is true that an improvement in the situation in Ukraine with a favorable evolution of negotiations between Russians and Ukrainians would have a positive impact on market morale, but this will not erase with a magic wand the negative effects of the conflict on prices. energy and growth.

A possible scenario, then, would be a fall in the coming weeks before an improvement at the end of the semester.

As is often the case, graphical analysis provides good benchmarks. The next resistance is at 6,786 points and the next support at 6,286 points, which gives a wide area of ​​intermediate consolidation (200 points). As a result, the “as soon as possible” is close to 6,786 points, for example, above 6,700 points to take some margin. Since the movements in sight are not very important, it is really necessary to use partial coverage as I had the opportunity to explain in the previous chats.

Jpm: Hello, Mr. Le Bailly, don’t you think it’s appropriate for a medium-term investor (2 or 3 years) to return to good growth stocks (luxury, techno) like Teleperformance, Sartorius Stedim or even Esker? who has lost 15% to 20% since the beginning of the year? Cordially.

In fact, when we see that Sartorius Stedim has lost a third of its value compared to last September’s greatest success, this can be tempting from a medium- and long-term perspective. Other titles that have dropped significantly include Soitec and Eurofins Scientific. The downside is less clear for Teleperformance or for luxury players.

We can also mention, was a question from Thierry, the case of Dutch stars such as ASML Holding or ASLML International, which lost about 20% at its maximum. We may have a chance to buy them lower in the coming weeks, but in a 2 or 3 year view, the chances of being a winner are strong.

THEO: Hello, Mr. Rémi Le Bailly, with this war and the sanctions taken by France and other countries, what are the actions that will rise the most if the negotiations between the belligerents are successful? Cordially.

I usually cite the tourism and transportation sector (including airport concessions. After the Covid and then the Ukrainian war, these sectors should catch up with some of their lag. We can add the car , which is the sector that has suffered is to be expected that the problems with the supply of raw materials will decrease and that an increase in the morale of households will strengthen demand.

In the penultimate issue of the weekly, two weeks ago, we mentioned the name Accor in tourism. We could add ADP. In the automotive sector, we mentioned Plastic Omnium and Michelin. I would add, among the manufacturers, Stellantis. Much more speculative, we can also think of Valeo and, even more speculative, Renault.

Finally, between the car and tourism, we must mention Trigano. The quarterly turnover was disappointing, but that does not call into question the medium to long-term outlook.

Monk: Hi, what do you think of Albioma at this level? What goal should be pursued given the international context?

We have been buying Albioma for a long time, which is less well valued than Neoen and Voltalia. Shares have risen sharply in recent weeks following the announcement of preliminary talks with the KKR fund with a view to the latter taking over. The dossier, however, is complex because energy is part of the “critical infrastructure” subject to Bercy’s authorization in the event of a transfer to non-European interests. As is the case with KKR.

That said, even without a refund (which would be at a price significantly higher than the current price), the stock has a bullish potential. Therefore, we are buying with a first goal at 50 euros.

Phil: Hi Rémi, what are your reasons for being a Jacquet Metals seller? Thanks.

We sold out late last year when the new wave of Covid raised questions about a possible slowdown in growth in Europe. Today, the strong presence of the group in Germany pushes us to be cautious. This country is especially sensitive to the situation in Ukraine.

Disorder: With galloping inflation, raw materials take center stage. Could you remind me of the issue of the weekly in which you published a fact sheet on the metal requirements for the energy transition?

It was number 2488. On pages 2 and 3 of our Responsible Investment section.

Madette: How do you respond to Adecco’s takeover bid for Akka?

The acquisition of Akka by Adecco was announced in July 2021. Adecco, which wants to merge Akka with its own subsidiary Modis, acquired the shares of Akka’s major shareholders (the Ricci and Swilux family). The price offered was a good 99% premium over the price on the eve of the announcement of the transaction. The company plans to withdraw from the listing if the 90% threshold is exceeded.

The 49 euros announced seem quite generous. So I would be tempted to wear it.

However, if the company does not reach 90%, it may be forced to raise its offer. So you can wait to see the results of the takeover bid. There is a small risk but there is also the possibility of getting more …

Michel: Hello, what is your level of confidence in Median Tech and your target price at the end of 2022? Best regards.

We recommended this action two months ago as part of our “Value to Discover” section. Provides computer imaging solutions for medical imaging for cancer testing. A few months ago good results were published in the detection of lung nodules. Attention, it is still a medtech, so be careful … We are a speculative purchase with a goal of 19 euros.

Max: Hi, could you enlighten me on the reasons for your “gaps” advice in late February on Eramet, which has skyrocketed since then? Thanks in advance for your clarifications. Cordially.

Many of you are asking me about Eramet, which we obviously sold too soon. We went on sale in late November for questions about the evolution of the political and social situation in New Caledonia. As a result, we missed the increase in recent weeks. We believe that the rating is too high at the moment.

It’s 5:15! We’ve already played overtime. Good morning and good week everyone. See you next Monday with a new cat.

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